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Tricky math on Starbucks amid sales uncertainty (NASDAQ:SBUX)

Cowen’s Andrew Charles takes on the tricky task of modeling Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) sales coming out of the pandemic after hearing the company’s update yesterday.

The FQ2 Americas same-store sales estimate goes to -3% from +2%, while Charles expects FQ3 Americas comparable sales to be -53% vs. -18% prior. “For 4Q, we lower our estimate from -4% to -5%. We assume all company-operated locations are open at the beginning of the quarter and are down 20% for the first month, and return to normalized 3% in August and September,” he estimates.

Looking further ahead, Charles expects 2020 EPS of $1.63 and 2021 EPS of $3.23 out of SBUX. The consensus marks aren’t really comparable anymore.

Cowen keeps a Market Perform rating on Starbucks with a price target of $65.

Shares of Starbucks are down 2.05% in premarket trading. While the FQ2 numbers were in line with what analysts expected considering the pandemic impact, the lack of clarity on store re-openings is a persistent headwind.

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